A-Investing-StockTradingOnline

Chart: Newmont Mining

2005-12-15T16:10:00.000-08:00

Topping?? Gold dropped $35+ intraday dollars since mondays idh. It has allready intermediate term topped.

Currency trading today

2005-12-09T13:54:00.000-08:00

The December Japanese Yen posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday’s gains. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .8385 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this fall’s decline, weekly support crossing at .8220 is the next downside target

Nasdaq gives Taser delisting notice

2005-11-25T10:22:00.000-08:00

Stun-gunmaker Taser International said Friday that the Nasdaq Stock Market told the company its stock could be delisted because it failed to file its third-quarter financial report on time.
Taser said it will appeal the Nasdaq's decision by requesting a hearing before the exchange's listing qualifications panel. Until the panel makes a decision, Taser's stock will continue to be traded on the Nasdaq, though its stock symbol will be changed to "TASRE" from "TASR" until it files its quarterly report.

The company, whose earnings and revenue have dropped sharply in recent quarters amid concern about the safety of its stun guns, said on Nov. 15 it would not file its third-quarter 10-Q report on time because it had to restate its first and second-quarter results. The restatement relates to errors in how it accounted for legal and professional fees.

The company said it will file its third-quarter 10-Q as soon as possible, after it files the restated first and second-quarter results.

Time for the "year end rally"??

2005-11-14T17:30:00.000-08:00

The U.S. stock indexes closed mixed today in uneventful trading. The bulls have recently gained good upside technical momentum. While investors are still concerned over the economy and consumer confidence, the worst two performance months (September and October) are now behind and this does give the bulls some encouragement. Also, it's not rare that the "Santa Claus" rally at the end of the year does begin early.

Comments on this weeks hot bond market

2005-11-11T14:05:00.000-08:00

December T-bonds were closed for Veteran’s Day. Here is a recap of Thursday’s trade. December T-bonds closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 111-12. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 112-00 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. If December renews this fall’s decline, September’s low crossing at 108- 23 is the next downside target.

Thanks to all Americans veterans on Veterans Day

2005-11-10T16:33:00.000-08:00

Thank you all; men and women, for serving our country so proudly!!!!
I salute you all.

My take on it all/oil & gas pricing

2005-11-08T15:51:00.000-08:00

Since the most recent run up in energy prices my take on the whole deal is the oil companies now know how much the American consumer will take. In my area; and where friends of mine live in the DC/Baltimore area , we experienced gasoline as high as $4.25 for a gallon of premium. Friends back home in the "mountain-state" said it went to $3.80 for a gallon of premium fuel. We have had quite a pullback of late. October 31st/Halloween is a large event for spending and parties. Our most American event; Thanksgiving, is another day of spending and binge consuming. Last; but not least, Christmas!!!!!!!!!!!! More spending, binge eating and drinking. I do not believe "the powers that be" would want to slow down the economy too much and "hurt" the American worker/consumer until AFTER THE PARTY IS OVER..................THAN LOOK OUT!!!!! If the northeast FINALLY has a "hard" winter.........
"BING, BANG, BOOM"...............another round of oil/natural gas/coal prices on the rise and a LONG COLD WINTER for the American working man and woman. Trying to do their best and getting "kicked in the teeth again".......................

Time for the year end rally??

2005-11-06T16:51:00.000-08:00

Have stocks begun their year-end rally early? As the calendar turned to November, stocks stages a rousing rally, carrying the Nasdaq to a 3.8% weekly gain which nearly wiped out its loss for the entire year. The Index rose 79 points, and is down just 0.3% for the year. The Russell 2000 jumped 3.6%, and is now the best-performing index as it has gained 1% this year. The S&P added 21 points, and is up 0.7% this year. The Dow continues to lag behind the other indexes, rising just 128 points as it is still down 2.3% this year.

If we can take out the intraday highs and closing prices posted on 10/3 on the Dow and SP500 we may well be on our way to a new rally and go over the August/Spetember highs prior to the end of the year.

Looking for opportunities that are " not out of the box"..........so to say.

Peru Copper/Trade

2005-11-03T16:23:00.000-08:00

Blogger was blocking my posts for the past 24+ hours accusing me of spam. this is total "b.s." and I have contacted blogger twice.
I went long Peru Copper; pcu, with an option trade on wednesday. the contract was the November 55 call option symbol; .pcukk, and I did not get it on the low bid of the day; which was 1.35, I got in at 1.9 as the stock and option was moving quickly. I had suggested to place a sell order at .55+ over entry price. This was easily covered as the day high was 2.75 on the option and the stockclosed at $57.30+2.55. The options were sold at 2.5.
The option returned a 24% profit on a daytrade that was not expected to happen so fast. We will gladly take it as any trade in the black is a good trade. My 5 contracts; minus fees, were a plus +$270 on an investment of $950.
Record since 12/27/04 (first trade ended in mid-January)
W L Broke Even
10 2 2

Exxon Mobil's revenue tops $100 billion

2005-10-27T15:57:00.000-07:00

The world's largest publicly-traded oil company, on Thursday reported net income of $9.92 billion, or $1.58 a share, on revenue of $100.7 billion. The quarter included a $1.62 billion gain from a restructuring of the company's interest in the Dutch gas transportation business.

Crude lower by $1.78 but markets drop

2005-10-26T14:11:00.000-07:00

The U.S. stock indexes closed lower again today. Big declines in crude oil prices today could not help the bulls. The stock indexes are still weak, technically. Investors are concerned over the economy and consumer confidence. Look for choppier trading in the near- term, but with a downside bias.

Energy Prices Today

2005-10-25T13:56:00.000-07:00

December crude oil closed up $2.12 at $62.44 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high today on more short covering. For the bulls to regain some fresh upside technical momentum, they will have to push prices above resistance at the $65.00 level.

December heating oil closed up 855 points at $1.9326 today. Prices closed near the session high on short covering after hitting a fresh 2.5-month low Monday.

December unleaded gasoline closed up 669 points at 1.6997 today. Prices closed near the session high on short covering. Prices Friday hit a fresh three-month low.

December natural gas closed up $1.303 at $14.480 today. Prices closed near the session high on extended weather forecasts for colder weather over the U.S. As we saw today, bulls are still in firm technical control.

Starbuck's options sold ++++20.2%

2005-10-20T15:37:00.000-07:00

Today I sold the 2 option contracts;.sqxaj the Jan 50 SBUX call option, for a profit of 1.2 ticks on each contract. My sell order; as per my last 2 writings, were to be palced at 1.2 ticks above entry price. I bought monday @ 5.2, the days high on the option.
This gives a return of 20.20% minus borkerage fees.
Record for the year is now 9 winners, 2 losers and 2 break even.

Market tanked.............we prevailed!!! Not bad for a "hillbilly" turned "city slick" analyst.

Wall Street has BIG day/Position update: Starbucks

2005-10-19T16:15:00.000-07:00

Stocks soared Wednesday, with the Dow Jones industrials gaining 128 points and the Standard & Poor's 500 index posting its largest point gain in almost six months, as a sharp drop in oil prices and a reassuring assessment of the economy cheered investors.
But the market drew solace late in the day from the Federal Reserve, which in its regular beige book breakdown of the economy said many parts of the country are still seeing decent growth despite high energy prices.
Stocks also got a boost from falling crude oil futures after the Energy Department reported larger-than-expected inventories of oil, gasoline and heating oil. A barrel of light crude was quoted at $62.41, down $1.10, on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

POSITION UPDATE:
Starbuck's closed today @$54.74+2.14. The current open option position;.sqxaj the Jan 06 50 Call, closed at 6.3+1.5 and just within a tick (.1) of my posted close out price. Which was to place your sell order @ 1.2 ticks over your entry price and mine was @ 5.2.

U.S. Sept. PPI up 1.9%

2005-10-18T15:54:00.001-07:00

U.S. wholesale prices rose 1.9% in September the Labor Department said Tuesday. Price increases were led by a 7.1% rise in wholesale energy prices, the biggest jump in 15 years. Food prices also soared, rising 1.4% on a record 49% increase in egg prices. The producer price index for finished goods has increased 6.9% in the past 12 months, the fastest rise in prices in 15 years.

.S. Sept. PPI up 1.9%

2005-10-18T15:54:00.000-07:00

Trade update/improper option symbol

2005-10-17T14:02:00.000-07:00

Please excuse my MAJOR mistake at giving the January 50 Starabucks put and not the call symbol. I realized this earlier this morning at work once I placed the order.
If anyone did follow through with the recommendation to buy the Jan 06 50 Starbucks call options they traded today with a high of 5.4 and a low of 4.7 and closed at 5.2 with volume at 162 contracts.
I am going to drop this recommendation at my blog as I made such a grevious error last evening. If you are in this position set a sell order at 1.2 ticks over your entry price. Be prepared to exit soon.

Trade Recommendation

2005-10-16T14:23:00.000-07:00

Starbucks prior to the split on 10/24. I look for the price to continue up as volume has increased with the jump up in the price of the stock of recent note. Earning has also reported up since the "bottom" in September. Do not look to stay in this trade long. Options expiration this week for October and the overall market is oversold so a "bounce" overall should be expected.
Looking to trade the:
January Starbucks Call Options
Friday closed @ 1.65
Place day order to buy @1.70

Consumer prices surge, energy prices up the most

2005-10-14T14:54:00.000-07:00

Consumer prices surged in September by the largest amount in more than 25 years as Hurricanes Katrina and Rita sent energy prices soaring at the fastest pace on record.
The Labor Department reported Friday that inflation jumped 1.2% last month. It said that 90% of the increase came from a record-setting 12% surge in energy prices, which reflected gasoline prices that briefly topped $3 a gallon last month after widespread shutdowns of refineries and oil and natural gas platforms along the Gulf Coast.

Outside of energy and food, inflation was more moderate, rising just 0.1%, the sixth straight month of benign readings in the so-called "core" rate of inflation. However, economists and officials at the Federal Reserve are worried that the energy jolt from the Gulf Coast hurricanes could start causing more widespread inflation problems.

Over the past 12 months, energy costs have climbed a steep 34.8%, the largest 12-month gain since a matching increase over the period ending June 1991. Gasoline prices are up more than 50%.

Even though most of the inflation is energy-related, it still is taking a toll on the consumer. A separate Labor Department report Friday said average weekly earnings adjusted for inflation have fallen 2.7% in the 12 months through September.

Still, the consumer price report showed little sign lofty energy costs were affecting other costs.

Food prices, which had been steady in August, climbed just 0.3% last month.

Hotel prices tumbled sharply and apparel prices slipped a touch after a big gain in August. However, the cost of new vehicles, medical care and communication more than offset those drops, the department said.

Market bottom soon.............than we trade

2005-10-13T15:56:00.000-07:00

I am looking for some trades next week but I am waiting for a bit more on the SPX and I need to see where crude closes tomorrow. Been tied up at the hospital and work with little time for the blog. Looking at several new items to trade here.

Delphi Move Could Force Industry Changes/Could Boost Pressure to Produce Auto Parts Overseas, Cut Wages and Benefits

2005-10-09T16:52:00.000-07:00

Delphi, the largest U.S. auto supplier, filed for bankruptcy Saturday and is expected to slash jobs and wages and close many of its 31 U.S. plants as part of its reorganization. General Motors Corp., Delphi's largest customer and former parent, said it might have to assume up to $11 billion in retirement benefits for Delphi's union-represented employees.

But the ripple effects won't end there. Delphi has 500 suppliers of its own who are waiting to see what kind of labor agreement Delphi negotiates with the United Auto Workers. Once a leaner Delphi emerges from bankruptcy, expected in 2007, its suppliers could face added pressure to lower their own costs through wage cuts or increased use of overseas labor.

Stocks continue to slide; down HARD intraday, on economy outlook

2005-10-06T14:52:00.000-07:00

Chronic economic and inflation worries stifled Wall Street's attempt at a rebound Thursday as stocks fell again, with the Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500 index marking four consecutive lower closes.
Declining issues outnumbered advancers by more than 2 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 2.14 billion shares, compared with 1.92 billion at the same point on Wednesday.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 5.53, or 0.9%, to 639.45.

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average tumbled 2.4%. In Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 closed down 1.0%, France's CAC-40 dropped 1.3% for the session, and Germany's DAX index lost 1.0% in late trading.

WOULD HAVE BEEN NICE TO GO SHORT ON MONDAYS SPX INTRADAY HIGH OF 1233+ WOULD IT NOT!!!

Don't try to catch the knife!/Stocks fall on inflation woes

2005-10-05T14:50:00.000-07:00

Stocks fell sharply Wednesday after a $1-a-barrel drop in crude oil prices pushed energy shares down and a top Federal Reserve official said policymakers must be alert to potential inflation.
Based on preliminary data, the blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average dropped 123.75 points, or 1.18%, to end unofficially at 10,317.36. The broad Standard & Poor's 500 Index slid 18.10 points, or 1.49%, to finish at 1,196.37, pushing it back into negative territory for the year.

The technology-laced Nasdaq Composite Index fell 36.34 points, or 1.70%, to close at 2,103.02.

U.S. crude for November delivery fell $1.11 to settle at $62.79 a barrel. That drove energy shares lower, with Dow component ExxonMobil (XOM) down 1.6% at $59.61.

Greenspan to Leave in Just Over 3 Months

2005-10-04T14:20:00.000-07:00

President Bush is preparing for another high-profile nomination: a successor to Alan Greenspan, whose 18-year run at the Federal Reserve comes to an end in just over three months.

Often referred to as the second-most powerful person in the United States, Greenspan's last day is expected to be Jan. 31.

Drawing frequent mentions for Greenspan's job are:

--Ben Bernanke: A former Fed board member, he recently became Bush's top economist.

--Martin Feldstein. An economics professor at Harvard University and president of the National Bureau of Economic Research, he advised Bush when the Texas governor ran for president in 2000.

--R. Glenn Hubbard. Dean of Columbia University's graduate school of business and an economics professor, he was Bush's chief economic adviser from 2001 to 2003

Markets looking sideways to down/NO RECOMMENDATONS HERE YET

2005-10-03T14:38:00.000-07:00

The U.S. stock indexes closed mixed today. Instead of depressing activity the ISM reported a rush on new factory orders in wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. There was a rush of new orders from manufacturers concerned about losing supplies. In addition, prices shot up as those manufacturers appeared willing to pay top dollar for the goods they needed. The ISM index rose to 59.4% in September from 53.6% in August. This is the highest level since August 2003 and well outside of expectations.
However;with gasoline prices at near record highs at the pump, and the recent devastating hurricanes, consumers and investors are concerned over the economy and consumer confidence. Rising inflation is also troublesome to stock market bulls. So the report from ISM is somwhat conflicting. We are now into the month of October, which is historically one of the worst-performing months for the U.S. stock market.

Gold ends higher in NY/ Anticipating $500

2005-09-29T14:29:00.000-07:00

Gold futures rose on Thursday close to last week's historic highs, lifted by commercial buying and investment interest in a hard asset that could hold its value in the face of soaring energy costs.

The rise in gold lit a fire under silver, which rose more than 2 percent to a 14-week high.

December gold at the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $2.70 to $475.80 an ounce, trading at $477 and $471.54.

COMEX December silver rose 15.2 cents to $7.555 an ounce, having dealt from $7.39 to $7.57, the highest price since June 20.

Only a trigger event could bring the price down; either a strong move in the dollar, a collapse in oil prices or strong profit taking. Energy and precious metals seem to be in lock-step currently.

NY gold jumps as new highs eyed

2005-09-28T14:44:00.000-07:00

COMEX gold rose 1.5 percent on Wednesday, as commodity investors doubled up on bets that the precious metal was not done setting new highs.
December gold at the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange closed up $6.90 at $473.10 an ounce. It traded from $464.70 to $473.70, reversing a loss of $3.30 the previous session.

Estimated volume was 84,000 contracts, compared with Tuesday's official 82,431.

The benchmark contract closed back in on the 18-year high reached six days ago at $479 per ounce. Traders expected gold to remain in demand as an inflation hedge so long as oil and gasoline prices are near record highs and doubts persist about how the U.S. economy will weather the damage from hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

The market had its sights set on the psychological $500 an ounce level, with 8,432 lots of open interest in the December 500 call exceeding the other out-of-the-money strikes.

NYMEX crude prices rose 2 percent to $66.45 a barrel, steadying from a fall on Tuesday. The dollar also fell back as the euro failed for the second day to close below $1.20.

The specter of stagflation has been enough to keep gold elevated, even as the recent firmness of the dollar made buying the hard asset with other currencies costlier for overseas investors.

Activity this week has been volatile and analysts worried that the market is greatly overbought, with the latest open interest of 369,967 lots on Tuesday near the record set last week at more than 371,000 contracts.

Fed talks tough

2005-09-27T16:34:00.000-07:00

Federal Reserve officials are sending a clear message to financial markets this week. Despite hurricanes striking the Gulf Coast, forget about a pause anytime soon in its campaign to raise interest rates, economists said Tuesday.
The signal from Fed officials is that they will continue to hike rates in November, December and January - the last three FOMC meetings of the Greenspan era, Rupkey said, bringing the Fed funds rate to 4.5%.

Anything else newsworhty??

2005-09-25T16:28:00.000-07:00

Are you getting tired of watching the controlled media talk about
hurricanes, as if there is nothing us important going on in the world? We
are!
Hurricane Rita, Hurricane Rita, Hurricane Rita. Turn off the darn television set! Let's talk about Alan Greenspan and his continual attempt to halt inflation. Let's talk about the Plunge Protection Team that some believe exists. and some do not.
Let's talk about the Al Quaeda coverup, if you don't believe there is one. Let's talk about closing the U.S. borders to illegal immigrants once and for all. Let's
talk about protecting the name of GOD in our schools and legal institutions. Think about it! Why does the ACLU want the Ten Commandments removed? Because they are the last ones to accept it as truth and law! All this should replace the Hurricane Rita coverage. But the same press in this country that is manipulated and controlled on the financial side has tenticles; like Cosa Nostra (Mafia), that stretch out to all levels of news and reporting. We know the financial press is controlled and we have seen it at work for nearly 30 years. We also know the press at large has a liberal agenda.
Just musings and ramblings brought to you by known associates to contemplate over.

U.S. leading indicators fall 0.2%

2005-09-22T14:19:00.000-07:00

A gauge of future economic activity declined in August for the second straight month, falling 0.2%, the Conference Board said Thursday. Five of the 10 leading economic indicators improved in August, while three declined. Consumer expectations was the biggest contributor to the decline in the index.

The coincident index increased 0.2% in August, while the lagging index fell 0.1%.

The previously reported 0.1% increase in the leading index for July was revised to a 0.1% decline.

Over the past six months, the leading index has increased 0.4%, with half of the 10 indicators improving. The index is designed to forecast economic activity six to nine months ahead.

In a separate report, the Labor Department said first-time jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 432,000 last week, putting the total number of Katrina-related claims at 214,000.

Gold tops $475 in after-market trading/Oil over $68 barrel

2005-09-21T14:00:00.000-07:00

Gold futures climbed above the key $475-an-ounce level in after-hours trading Wednesday, extending gains after closing out the regular session at their highest level since late 1987.

A rise in crude oil to a high above $68 a barrel continued to feed concerns about inflation.

Crude futures jumped to a high of $68.10 a barrel in New York. The benchmark contract thus moved within hailing distance of its all-time high of $70.85 reached Aug. 30

Federal Reserve hikes key rate a quarter-point/Dow down 76/Crude pulls back

2005-09-20T14:27:00.000-07:00

The Federal Open Market Committee increased its target for overnight interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 3.75% Tuesday. This is the eleventh straight meeting with a quarter-point rate hike. The Fed funds rate is now at its highest level since June 2001. The increase in the federal funds rate was expected by traders and economists on Wall Street. There was one dissent. Fed governor Mark Olson preferred that the Fed stand pat. The committee once again concluded its monetary policy stance remains accommodative and that this "accommodation" can be removed "at a pace that is likely to be measured."

The Dow closed down 76 points to 10481 today while crude closed down 1.31 to 66.20 in some profit taking the the most recent run up in the price of crude due to the hurricane threat.

Crude+$4.17/Dow-94,Nasdaq-15/arlp (old friend)

2005-09-19T14:23:00.000-07:00

October crude oil closed sharply higher on Monday; closing at 67.51+4.17, due to short covering triggered by concerns over the possibility of another hurricane hitting the United States. Monday’s rally led to a close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.04 and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Tuesday. Indicators have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends Monday’s rally, the August 12 reaction high crossing at 67.75 is the next upside target.

Dow Closes Down 84, Nasdaq Sinks 15

Stocks plummeted Monday as heightened fears of another hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast sent oil prices racing past $67 a barrel and investors grew anxious about the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest-rate meeting.

Alliance Resources; arlp, split last friday 2for1. It closed monday at46.53+1.59. I have traded this stock a lot and as I have said before is a long term hold with the firm that employs me.

NYMEX:CLX5

2005-09-14T13:53:00.000-07:00

October crude oil closed sharply higher;65.73+1.95, due to short covering on Wednesday and above broken support marked by this summer’s uptrend line crossing near 63.70. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near.Today's close above resistance at 65.63 signaled that a short-term low has likely been posted

New uptrend??

2005-09-11T15:59:00.000-07:00

The current high from 10/10/02 is 1245.86 and if that number is exceeded in the coming week an uptrend will most likely last weeks to months. Selections coming soon.

EBay reportedly in talks to buy Skype Technologies

2005-09-08T13:43:00.000-07:00

EBay Inc. (EBAY) is in talks to acquire Internet telephony company Skype Technologies SA, two published reports said Thursday. The Wall Street Journal said eBay is in talks to buy the company for between $2 billion and $3 billion. The New York Post meanwhile said eBay has offered roughly $5 billion for the phone service. A Skype spokeswoman declined to comment.

Dow, S&P, Nasdaq up strong, Crude -$1.61

2005-09-06T15:39:00.000-07:00

The Dow closed sharply higher on Tuesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,518 thereby confirming that a short-term low has been posted.
If the Dow extends the rally off August’s low, the reaction high crossing at 10,641 is the next upside target.

October crude oil closed below the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.63 on Tuesday confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The August 18th low crossing at 62.75 is the next downside target.

No new trades at this time.

Trades closed out/update from "Dodge City"

2005-09-01T14:45:00.000-07:00

We closed out both of our most current trades today.

Monday we bought the September 1150 Puts @2.15 (4 contracts + commisions=$890 including round turn on commissions). We sold today all for 1.0 each. A total loss of $490 inclduing commissions which was about a 55% loss. OUCH!!!!!!

We also bought the Oceaneering International Inc. September 45 Calls @ 2.40 (4 contracts + commissions=$990 including round turn on commissions). We sold all 4 shortly after the open when the stock "spiked" $1.72 up! We sold the 4 calls @6.0. A total gain of $1410 or about 141% gain. AHHHHHHHHHHHHHH................

Our trades ended up a plus $920 for the account.
I went to the hospital late for another shot in my spine and will now take a long weekend off from work and the site.

OII/pre-market

2005-09-01T06:25:00.000-07:00

OII is kicking butt pre-market. Will NOT close out at 4.80+. Looking for 5.50+ easily.
Watching SPX closely. Events in Louisiana may affect todays trading.
Saudi's said to increase production. Yeah, right. They are using water psi to get the oil out now!

First time ever/watching market on open

2005-09-01T06:10:00.000-07:00

I am at work and watching "market on open" for my friends account and posting at the "blog". DOW/SPX futures turning down. Will move sell order dependant upon open pricing. Would like to do good on both option positions or not so bad on the SPX considering the OII "zoomed" much greater than expected.
Leaving for hospital at 10 am. Work first than hospital. Back problems again. Procedure at 11am.

Positions update

2005-08-31T17:10:00.000-07:00

Close the September SPX 1150 put option; .sptuj, @ any trade over 1.00. We covered @2.15. Closed today @.90.

Close the September OII 45 call option; .oiiii, @ any trade over 4.80. We covered @2.40. Closed today @5.50.

Katrina's effects will have a long lasting affect

2005-08-30T13:54:00.000-07:00

October crude oil closed sharply higher on Tuesday and once again spiked above $70 as a result of damage from hurricane Katrina to oil refinery and import facilities in the Gulf of Mexico. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) has turned bullish with this week’s rally to new all-time highs and signals that additional gains are likely near-term.
October heating oil closed sharply higher on Tuesday as shut down oilrigs in the Gulf of Mexico and refineries along the coast continue to fuel speculative buying. Tuesday’s rally posted another new contract high and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. The daily ADX (a trend- following indicator) has turned bullish again with this week’s rally to new all-time highs and signals that additional gains are likely near-term.
October unleaded gas closed sharply higher on Tuesday as they extend this week’s rally due to concerns over the disruption of gasoline production in the Gulf due to damages sustained from hurricane Katrina. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) has turned bullish with this week’s rally to new all-time highs and signals that additional gains are likely near-term.
HOLD CURRENT PUTS ON SPX. DITTO CALLS ON OII.

Update

2005-08-29T15:28:00.000-07:00

We are long the September SPX 1150 Put Option @ 2.15.
Hold. The market may have reversed today but the "tide" has NOT turned.

We are long the September OII 45 Call option @ 2.40.
Hold. Hurricane effects should move this stock option.

Comments on market conditions/Trade recommendation

2005-08-28T15:49:00.000-07:00

While I have been recovering from my back ailments I have had a chance to see some different occurrances in the various markets. For one energy has been a strong player since September of '04. I have been a strong trader of the OSX; oil services holders index, during that time as well as an energy company know as Alliance Resources; arlp,a player the in coal industry to major electric utilities. Since I graduated from the University; back when they discovered electricity, I had 4 friends who went on to become employed in both the oil and coal industries. I obtain very useful information from them for my clients; at my firm, and push off some of that info here at this blog which details the trades I am making with a friends finaces to aid his retirement. That is why I talk great deal about oil and coal. I feel that those 2 and natural gas will be big money makers over the next 6-7 months. Another favorite of mine in the natural gas industry is Patterson; pten, and we will be trading it soon too.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION:
I am suggesting a trade on the SPX put options with a September expiration.
Buy the SPX September 1150 Put Option at a price of 2.10+. You may "chase" up to 2.30! Below are fridays prices for close, high and low.
SPTUJ 2.10 -0.20 2.85 1.85
Go long the September OII call options at 2.40+. Hurricane effects may move this quickly.

As always, good luck and good hunting and I am glad to be back even if it may be temporary.

Back from "the dead"/Oil again closes up

2005-08-25T16:18:00.000-07:00

On a personal note I have been away due to severe a back problem. I left unannounced but I had no choice.

October crude oil closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the rebound off last week’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Closes above this month’s high crossing at 67.75 are needed to renew this summer’s rally while opening the door into uncharted territory. Closes below last week’s low crossing at 63.27 are needed to confirm that a short- term top has been posted.

Stocks Close Lower on Widening Trade Deficit & Oil Fears

2005-08-13T11:02:00.000-07:00

The Dow closed lower on Friday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 10,620. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday.

September crude oil closed sharply higher for the third day in a row on Friday as it posted another all-time high. The outages have cut into U.S. gasoline inventories amid peak summer demand. The federal Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that U.S. gasoline stocks dropped by a larger-than-expected 2.1 million barrels to 203.1 million barrels last week. It was the sixth consecutive weekly draw in gasoline stocks.

The market has been watching oil prices obsessively, afraid that higher energy costs could lower consumer spending and increase business expenses. The fear is that higher oil prices, coupled with the Fed's streak of interest rate hikes, could plunge the economy into a recession.

Natural gas closes at 9.321

2005-08-11T13:42:00.000-07:00

September Henry Hub natural closed sharply higher for the second day in a row on Thursday as it extends this summer’s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. If September extends the rally off last week’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 9.505 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.566 would signal that a short-term top been posted.

We have been studying a few possible picks in this area and will announce them soon.

Dow up alomost 100 points than gets "body slammed"/Oil closed at 66.06

2005-08-10T17:28:00.000-07:00

September crude oil closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it posted another all- time high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday, as the door is open into uncharted territory.
Don't get caught up. We will wait for a "blow off" or pullback before andy oil entries.

Oil Prices Hit New High, Near $64 a Barrel

2005-08-08T14:01:00.000-07:00

Oil prices jumped to a new high near $64 a barrel on Monday, reflecting the market's persistent uneasiness about strong demand, tight supplies and a slew of threats to output around the globe.

Traders pinned the latest rally on security concerns in Saudi Arabia, refinery snags in the United States and the continued rise of gasoline consumption in spite of soaring pump prices.
Several factors put the market on edge Monday:

The U.S. Embassy and consulates in Saudi Arabia were closed after authorities announced Sunday a security threat against U.S. government buildings inside the world's largest petroleum-producing country.

Iran, OPEC's second biggest player behind Saudi Arabia, resumed uranium conversion activities at its Isfahan nuclear facility Monday, a step that Europeans and the United States have warned would prompt them to seek U.N. sanctions against the Tehran regime.

Crdue 8/5 IDH 63.45--Dow closes at 10558-52

2005-08-07T15:14:00.000-07:00

September crude oil closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off July’s low.
Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but becoming overbought hinting that a double top with July’s high might be forming. If September extends the rally off July’s low, the contract high crossing at 62.89 is the next upside target.

CNOOC Withdraws $18.4B Bid for Unocal

2005-08-02T16:28:00.000-07:00

CNOOC's retreat clears the way for Chevron Corp., the second-largest U.S. oil company, to complete its acquisition of Unocal next week, even though its cash-and-stock offer is currently worth $700 million less.

Chevron had several factors working in its favor -- regulatory clearance, the support of Unocal's board and the backing of U.S. lawmakers, who questioned whether economic and national security interests would be threatened if a company with significant ties to China's Communist government were to buy a major U.S. oil company.

In a strongly worded statement, Hong Kong-based CNOOC said it might have raised its bid even higher, if not for the political backlash.

"The unprecedented political opposition...was regrettable and unjustified," CNOOC said. "This political environment has made it very difficult for us to accurately assess our chance of success, creating a level of uncertainty that presents an unacceptable risk to our ability to secure this transaction."

The marriage is expected to be consummated Aug. 10 when Unocal shareholders are scheduled to formally vote on the offer. CNOOC's withdrawal from the bidding is anticipated to turn the vote into a formality.

Unocal spokesman Barry Lane said the company's board remains convinced that it accepted the superior offer.

Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Fadel Gheit agreed with Unocal's rationale, given the uncertainties surrounding CNOOC's bid. But he doubted a bid from another foreign oil company would have met such stiff opposition.

Chevron already is working with CNOOC on oil projects near China and Australia. Campbell declined to discuss how that relationship might change because of the tensions that flared in the Unocal tug-of-war.

"This deal is good for Chevron -- it's something they needed to do -- but if I were Chevron, I would be calling up China right now, saying, 'Come, let us reason together,'" said William Ferer, director of research for W.H. Reaves & Co., an institutional money manager.

Tuesday's resolution pleased investors. Chevron's shares gained $1.13, or nearly 2 percent, to close at $59.56 on the New York Stock Exchange, where CNOOC's shares rose $4.153, or 6 percent, to $73.49 and Unocal's shares edged up 16 cents to $64.53.

With CNOOC's bid gone, Unocal's shares are likely to fluctuate with the value of Chevron's bid, which was worth $64.41 per share, or $17.7 billion, after Tuesday's developments.

Although Unocal's shares have slipped from their recent 52-week high of $66.79, stockholders are still reaping a big gain from the El Segundo-based company's decision to sell itself. The company's market value has climbed by about $6 billion, or nearly 50 percent, during the past seven months.

San Ramon-based Chevron initially agreed to buy Unocal in early April for $62 per share. Unocal -- prized for its oil and natural gas supplies in Asia and the Gulf of Mexico -- also had been negotiating with CNOOC and another unidentified bidder believed to be Italy-based Eni SpA.

After Chevron had already received all the required regulatory approvals to buy Unocal, CNOOC tried to break up the marriage six weeks ago with an all-cash offer of $67 per share.

CNOOC's move triggered a political furor that reflected the United States' concerns about the China's increasing financial muscle and its bustling economy's growing thirst for oil.

Positions update/8-1-05

2005-08-01T16:55:00.000-07:00

We closed out our Vital Images; vtal, positions today for a nice gain.

We sold the stock @20.00 with the idh @20.10 on our 200 shares that were bought on 7/5 @18.50. Our $300 profit equals out to 7.5% gain on the stock trade for a 1 month hold.

We sold the October call options; .hxqjw, @3.2 with the idh @ 3.4 and a day range of 3.2-3.4. We went long also on 7/5 @2.10 on our 2 long options with a gain of $220 for the two. This equals out to a 50% gain on the option positions.

This more than cover our loss in June on the E-mini positions and puts out current record since the last week in December of 2004 at: 7-1-2. 7 profitable trades, 1 losing trade and 2 trades that broke even. We started this account with $10000 in December for a friend of mine so all trades posted are literally done with his funds to help his own account. Kind of like a "free" investment advisor working his friends trades. Not at all bad considering the time I have for this blog while my employers are not aware of me "giving" trades for free.

One of my favorites; Alliance Resources (arlp), has literally taken off since we were stopped out in June. It closed today at 88.52 up almost 14 points since we stopped out on 6/17. This has been a long term hold for our clients so they continue to reap rewards. Here I try to "sell" the highs and "buy" the occasional pullbacks. Look at their chart and see what I mean. Thanks for checking in and I look forward to another trade very soon.

Dow down on profit taking/oil up amidst fires

2005-07-29T15:30:00.000-07:00

The Dow posted a downside reversal due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this month’s rally. The March-April decline crossing at 10,739 is the next upside target.
September crude oil closed higher on Friday as it extends yesterday’s breakout above the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.68. The September contract closed at 60.57+.63.

10 Highest Rated Stocks/Investor's Business Daily

2005-07-28T14:34:00.000-07:00

1. Brookfield Homes (BHS)
Its construction business has done well, but last year nearly half of net income came from bulk land sales in pricey California.

2. Google (GOOG)
Search engine titan may be rolling out an online payment service.

3. Ultra Petroleum (UPL)
The largest leaseholder in Wyoming's gas-rich Pinedale Anticline, which holds an estimated 40 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

4. Diodes (DIOD)
Its tiny products help control power use and manage electrical current in high-definition TVs, cell phones, digital music players and laptops.

5. Quality Systems (QSII)
Medical practices are moving to digital records, many of them using this company's sytems.

6. Marvell Technology (MRVL)
It makes 60% of the chips that power small devices such as iPods.

7. Toll Brothers (TOL)
It's the dominant player in the market for luxury homes.

8. KB Home (KBH)
It has more than doubled its major markets, from 17 to 36, over the past three years.
-
9. Meritage Homes (MTH)
Its markets in Texas, California, Arizona and Nevada are expected to get lots of retiring baby boomers looking for housing.

10. Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV)
Partly by grabbing business from rivals, its housing orders have risen 35% the past few years.

Positions update/Tuesday evening

2005-07-26T14:46:00.000-07:00

We are placing sell orders on both of our Vital Images; vtal, positions as of wednesdays open and they are as follows:
Sell Vital Images; vtal, stock @ any trade over $20. Closed tuesday @19.74/idh 19.85.
Sell Vital Images October Call options ; .hxqjw, @3.0+. Closed tuesday @ 2.80.

Let's see if we can take some money off of the table and prepare for our next trade.

Existing Home Sales Set Record in June

2005-07-25T14:24:00.000-07:00

Existing homes were sold at the fastest pace in history last month, and the median price set a record as well. But some private economists predicted housing may be nearing its peak as mortgage rates begin to rise.
· Dow Ends Down 55 on Lackluster Earnings
· Teamsters, SEIU Bolt AFL-CIO Federation
· Teva to Buy Ivax in $7.4 Billion Deal
· Sony Agrees to $10M 'Payola' Settlement

Late session recovery

2005-07-22T15:43:00.000-07:00

Choppy, narrowly confined trade at steady to slightly lower levels dominated for much of the session. No technical damage was done as the averages held at short term supports (see The Technical Take) with buyer returning on a break of midday ranges. Overall it has been a solid week as new multi-month/year highs were established but the last two days have been marked by consolidative trade.
Top performing sectors today include: Oil Service +5.3%, Steel +3.6%, Natural Gas +2.9%, Oil +2.5%, Semi +1.3%, Housing +1.3%, Coal +1.2%. The weakest groups have been led by Biotech -2.7%, Airline -1.5%, Drug -0.6%.

Current positions:
Vital Images 19.51+.01
October 17.59 call 2.45-.65

Terrorist attack England but world markets resiliant, Again!

2005-07-21T16:45:00.000-07:00

Bombers struck at the United Kingdom again today but failed to deter investers world wide as European and Ameericna Markets closed eith poisitve or well above their earlier lows.

Hold current positions on Vital Images; vial, stock and options. Both have improved considerably.

Earnings driving market/(vtal) Update

2005-07-19T15:30:00.000-07:00

The Dow closed higher on Tuesday as it extended this month’s rally. June’s high crossing at 10,695 is the next upside target.

Not a lot of volume but moving nicely on both the stock and the option positions.

(VTAL) VITAL IMAGES INC. 18.93 +0.92 +5.11% 141,879

.HXQJW VTAL Oct, 2005 17.5 call 2.0+.25

Update

2005-07-14T16:35:00.000-07:00

A buyer is needed for every seller and for me I was fortunate that the Vital Images option positions are thinly traded and not heavily like QQQQ or SPX options. Although the limit stop price on our option position was "hit" wednesday my paltry few were not offset so they are still open. The contract; .hxqjw (October 17.50 calls), traded only 25 contracts on wednesday and only 5 thursday. Once again "lucky" but as I said before, I would rather be lucky than good. Still feel strongly about the stock at this time.
The stock position also traded close to our limit stop but held. The stock; vtal, was under pressure again today and closed lower but did not have a lower intraday today than yesterday.

Unocal Sells Unit to Pogo for $1.8 Billion/POSITIONS UPDATE

2005-07-11T15:55:00.000-07:00

Takeover target Unocal Corp. said Monday it has agreed to sell its Canadian oil and gas subsidiary for $1.8 billion in a move that analysts said would not involve Unocal resources coveted by rival bidders Chevron Corp. and Chinese government-run CNOOC Ltd.
CNOOC, a unit of China National Offshore Oil Corp., is offering to pay $18.5 billion for Unocal, which had previously agreed to a $16.6 billion offer from Chevron.
The sale of Northrock won't affect Chevron's current offer for Unocal, a company spokesman said.

Last tuesday we went long Vital Images; vtal, on both stock and option positions.
We are long the stock @ 18.50.
We are long the October 17.50 Call Options;.hxqjw, @2.10.
Leave stops as per previous mention as well as our targets.

Dow reverses/closed higher after London Attacks/oil, gold down

2005-07-07T16:10:00.000-07:00

The Dow closed higher on Thursday after spiking below the 75% retracement level of the April-June rally crossing at 10,174 in early trading. A sustained rally throughout the day pulled the Dow into positive territory by the close and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.
August crude oil closed lower on Thursday due to profit taking and posted a key reversal down after spiking to a new all-time high of 62.10.

Gold futures ended slightly lower on Thursday, reversing a safe-haven rally prompted by deadly bombings in London and exemplifying a confused market reaction to the deadliest peacetime attack on the British capital.

It was the mirror image for New York copper, which reversed losses as a lack of supply of the crucial industrial metal trumped the urge to take profits after four explosions ripped though London's subway and bus system during the morning rush hour, killing at least 37 people and wounding 70

"Ridin' the storm out"

2005-07-06T14:39:00.000-07:00

August crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off last Friday’s low and is poised to test the contract high crossing at 60.95. The high- range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. The door into uncharted territory is now open with a major hurricane headed towards the Gulf of Mexico.

UPDATE: Current positions

2005-07-05T16:26:00.000-07:00

Today we went long Vital Images; vtal, on any trade above 18.50. The day range was 18.23-18.80 and closed @ 18.64+.44. Leave stop as stated last evening.

Our option position was not covered as per my listed bid at this site @ 1.75-1.85. I myself covered the position at 2.10. Since I did not list this during the day I will only make it part of the suggested trade at this site if todays range is again covered. I am suggesting to buy the October 17.50 Vital Images call option in the range of 2.10-2.15. If you cover set a stop @ 1.45.

Clarity This Week? Earnings again will drive/LONG TRADE RECOMMENDATION

2005-07-04T10:19:00.000-07:00

Until Thursday, when the first reports come out, investors can expect a sluggish market, with light volume due to the holiday-shortened week

The markets sold off heavily last week as the Fed gave no signal when it might stop raising interest rates. With oil closing out the week above $58 per barrel, investors are worried that high rates and high energy prices will slow the economy too much.

So it falls now to second-quarter earnings, which kick off on Thursday with Alcoa Inc.'s report, to assuage Wall Street that corporate profits will continue to grow at a healthy pace and keep the economy moving forward despite increasing interest rates and oil prices that show no signs of dropping lower.

Vital Images

LONG TRADE: stock
Go long Vital Images; vtal, on any trade @18.56+. Looking for another breakout and push over 20. Set stop @ 17.47.

LONG TRADE: option
POSITION: HXQ JW - Oct. $17.50c. Vital Images (vtal). Delta .63. Bid the position in the 1.75-1.85 range.

Potential for "bottom" looming

2005-06-30T15:18:00.000-07:00

The Dow closed lower on Thursday and below the 50% retracement level of the April-June rally crossing at 10,347. If the Dow extends this month’s decline, the 62% retracement level of the April-June rally crossing at 10,265 is the next downside target.

August crude oil closed lower for the third day in a row on Thursday due to profit taking and closed below the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.25. If August extends this week’s decline, the 50% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 55.00 is the next downside target.

I feel there is a very strong chance for a major bottom on the near horizon. No updates until the weekend. Everyone who checks in here I wish you all a safe and enjoyable holiday and be thankful of those whom protect our freedoms and liberties in this great country of ours!!! God bless all of our service personal all around the globe!!

Crude down .94 in profit taking again/"chatter"

2005-06-29T15:38:00.000-07:00

August crude oil closed lower for the second day in a row on Wednesday due to profit taking and tested the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.17. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

I am looking to go long again possibly next week and I am reviewing all possibilities and markets.

U.S. consumer confidence rises to 3-year high

2005-06-28T17:31:00.000-07:00

The U.S. consumer confidence index rose to a three-year high of 105.8 in June, the Conference Board said Tuesday.
The improvement "suggests that business activity and labor market activity will continue to pick up over the next several months," said Lynn Franco, director of the board's consumer research unit.
"And, with consumers in better spirits, and job concerns remaining relatively steady, there is little reason to expect a dramatic shift in consumers' spending," Franco said.
For the first time in nearly three years, the proportion of consumers who believe jobs are plentiful was as large as the number who think jobs are hard to get.

The percentage of consumers who say the economy is "bad" fell to 15.5% from 16.4%, while the percentage saying the economy is good was nearly unchanged at 26.9%.

Looking ahead, consumers are less confident about the job market, with 16.5% saying jobs will become less plentiful vs. 15.2% who say more jobs are coming.

Light Sweet Crude Oil Aug 2005 (NYMEX:CLQ5)/and some personal reflections

2005-06-27T16:30:00.000-07:00

August crude oil closed higher on Monday and above the previous the contract high crossing at 60.02. Closed at 60.54+.70.
Next target is 61.00 with a strong potential for the 1-3 month trend to go to 63.00.
Crude will remain in it's current uptrend until it has a close below 57.26-57.85. The Amex Oil Indes; xoi, has done extremely well during the current run up in crude prices.

Be careful "hitching your wagon" on this road to "anything" oil related. The strongest run is behind us in both price and time.

Dow down/Crude up-but no realationship, correct?

2005-06-25T15:17:00.000-07:00

The Dow closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Friday and below the 50% retracement level of the April-June rally crossing at 10,347. The low- range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near- term. If the Dow extends this week’s decline, the 62% retracement level of the April-June rally crossing at 10,265 is the next downside target.

August crude oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it is challenging the contract high crossing at 60.02. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are bearish signaling that a double top with April’s high might be forming. Closes above April’s high crossing at 60.02 would open the door into uncharted territory. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 58.19 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.

I applogize for not listening to my earlier calls in June looking for a top early in the month. The week of 6-6 thru 6-10 was very positive and the reason I went "long" on the 10th of June.

"A bad day in Dodge City"/Stopped out both/comments

2005-06-23T14:55:00.000-07:00

Crude took names today and kicked butt just when I thought the current price may not be affecting the markets too much. The "saber-ratteling" over trade with China really threw the markets a nasty punch today as well.
We were stopped out of both of our current long positions today with the SPX hitting idl @ 1200.72 while we had a stop @ 1205.47. Loss of 7.53 points per each contract.
ARLP closed 74.50 and hit idl @ 74.46 while we had a stop @ 74.55. The ARLP trade was a "push" or break even as we went long @ 74.25 so we paid "the juice" to the firm.
This now puts my average at 6-1-2. 6 winners, 1 loser and 2 break even trades.

August crude oil closed sharply higher on Thursday ending a two-day correction and is poised to test the contract high crossing at 60.02. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are bearish signaling that a double top with April’s high might be forming. Closes above April’s high crossing at 60.02 would open the door into uncharted territory.

Greenspan warns against anti-China protectionism By William L. Watts
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan on Thursday warned lawmakers against a "step back into protectionism," arguing that proposals for anti-China tariffs would do little to protect U.S. jobs and could undercut U.S. living standards. In testimony prepared for delivery to the Senate Finance Committee, Greenspan said there is little evidence a stronger Chinese yuan would boost U.S. manufacturing jobs or improve the U.S. trade balance. Instead, the United States would be likely to import more items from other Asian countries. Greenspan, however, said a more flexible currency would help China achieve economic stability and could aid world economic growth.

Comments on oil/gold/markets

2005-06-21T16:02:00.000-07:00

July crude oil closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this month’s rally. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but overbought hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If July extends this month's rally, March’s high crossing at 59.94 is the next upside target.
August gold closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the recent breakout above the 62% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at 438.60.

Not a lot of excitement today on Wall Street or much to talk about tonight. Hold current positions.

Positions Update

2005-06-20T17:33:00.000-07:00

ARLP opened below our stop set this past weekend and than rebounded much higher druing the day. Position is still open. I dropped the stop this morning while at work. Reinstate your stop @ 74.55
Last Trade 75.98 Change +0.62 (+0.82%)
The SPX held reasonably well even with crude trading higher. SPX 1216.10-0.86. Leave current stop on as previously listed last evening.

WEEKEND UPDATE: Long positions/ oil comments

2005-06-19T15:54:00.000-07:00

Friday we went long on 2 positions.
We are long S&P E mini October @ 1213.00 with a stop @1199.00. I would like to move the stop order to 1205.47 and our target is 1223.00 which is lower than the 3/7 idh but I want to see what type of "legs" this rally has.

We are long Alliance Resources; arlp, @ any trade under 74.30. We went long 100 shares @74.25 w/ the idl @ 74.01. Set current stop @ $74.55. I need to see what type of "legs" the energy market has as well. Crude and the Dow/SPX were both strong friday.

ENERGY:
If July crude oil extends this month's rally, March’s high crossing at 59.94 is the next upside target. Light Sweet Crude Oil Aug 2005 (NYMEX:CLQ5) closed at 59.18 +1.75 (+3.05%)

July Henry Hub natural closed higher for the third day in a row on Friday as it extended thursdays breakout above the 75% crossing at 6.607. Aug 2005 (NYMEX:NGQ5) closed friday at 7.778+0.086 (+1.12%)

DOW JONES US COAL INDEX (INDEX:DJUSCL) closed at 215.67+1.23 (+0.57%)

Long trades: SPX/ARLP

2005-06-16T16:21:00.000-07:00

Upon review we have decided to issue 2 long trade recommendations.

Go long the E-Mini SP 500 ; ESP5 (September), at any trade OVER 1213.00. Todays close was 1210.93 with the intraday high at 1212.10. Set current stop at 1199.00 and keep on top of updates.

Go long Alliance Resources Limited Partnershop; arlp, at any trade BELOW $74.30, todays closing price. I fell we can still grab some of the upside on one of my favorites.

Commodities: crude up/copper, new contract high

2005-06-16T15:55:00.000-07:00

July crude oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it extends this week’s breakout above the 62% retracement level of the April-May decline. It has extended this months rally and crossed the 75% retracement level at 56.96 with todays close at $57.43.

HGN5; July copper, closed at 1.5695 + .0205. July copper closed higher on Thursday and posted a new contract high as it extended this week’s rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. If July extends this spring's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 164 is the next upside target. Closes below 152.50 would signal that this spring's rally has come to an end.
Chinas strong demand for copper has helped propel the market. any weakness in Chineses growth would hamper the continued increase in the price of copper. We are looking at all angles.

Crude, the Dow both up slightly/charts : adza

2005-06-15T16:11:00.000-07:00

July crude oil closed higher on Wednesday and above the 62% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at 55.39. 56.96 is the next upside target.

The Dow closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates below the crossing at 10,611.
10,740 is the next upside target.

Adeza Biomedical. Appears to have been "channeling" of recent note and entering current "top" end of range.

Crude + over $2

2005-06-13T16:00:00.000-07:00

July crude oil posted a key reversal up on Monday and is challenging the 62% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at 55.39. The 75% retracement level crossing at 56.96 is the next upside target.

Today the Dow closed very far from it's intraday highs. On what is expected to be a potentially sloppy week. The markets are still trying to work off the excesses from their recent rally, and technical analysis suggests that they have more room to slide in order to cure the overbought conditions in which they find themselves.

Dow closed higher on Friday

2005-06-12T16:36:00.000-07:00

The Dow's higher close on Friday as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing at 10,516. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that sideways trading is likely. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,471 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Look for a short term top to be in place.

July crude oil closed lower on Friday and below the 50% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at 53.98. A close below 51.72 is needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted

Fed Chief speaks, Dow & Crude Up

2005-06-09T16:22:00.000-07:00

July crude oil closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 50% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at 53.98. The 75% retracement level crossing at 56.96 is the next upside target.

Oceaneering, oii chart

The Dow closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing at 10,516. The 62% retracement level of the March-April decline crossing at 10,610 is the next upside target.

CANCEL LONG TRADE RECOMMENDATION: CMGI

2005-06-08T17:00:00.000-07:00

Cancel the previously posted trade comment at this site wednesday evening.

Crude intraday over $55 than pulls back sharply/Long trade recommendation

2005-06-08T16:00:00.000-07:00

July crude oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 52.99. The 20-day moving average crossing at 51.43 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

We are making a long trade recommendation tonight. CMGI, Inc.;cmgi, go long at the following price: any trade below $1.86 good-til-cancelled. Target: $2.20.

1.86 Change:
-0.09 Open:
1.98 High:
1.9806 Low:
1.83 Volume:
16,308,822
Percent Change:
-4.62% Yield:
n/a P/E Ratio:
46.50 52 Week Range:
1.139 to 3.00
After Hours Trading
6/8/2005 6:29:00 PM Last:
1.92 Change:
+0.06 Volume:
191,142

"Just what America needed, another kick in the teeth"/General Motors to cut 25,000 jobs by 2008

2005-06-07T16:02:00.000-07:00

General Motors (GM) Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner, speaking at GM's annual shareholder meeting in Delaware on Tuesday, said the struggling automaker will cut at least 25,000 jobs by 2008 and close additional assembly and component plants in an effort to reach annual savings of about $2.5 billion.
Incentives to potential retirees?? What a dire straight we have been thrown into for the American worker! Of course the stocks price went up on the announcement today but woe to the assemblyline worker.

Wall Street awaits Fed chief's comments/Crude slight pullback

2005-06-06T14:42:00.000-07:00

With little economic news out this week, investors are eagerly awaiting comments from Alan Greenspan. The head of the Federal Reserve is scheduled to speak in China around 9 p.m. Eastern time and to testify before Congress on the economic outlook Thursday. Todays market action reflected this feeling.
Wall Street is eager to hear what Greenspan has to say in the wake of recent comments about interest rates from other Fed officials.

July crude oil posted a downside reversal on Monday due to profit taking after spiking above the 62% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at 55.39. If July extends this spring's rally, the 75% retracement level crossing at 56.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 52.19 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.

Crude + Dow -

2005-06-03T14:38:00.000-07:00

July crude oil closed higher on Friday as it extends the short covering rally off May's low and is challenging the 62% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at 55.39. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's rally, the 75% retracement level crossing at 56.96 is the next upside target.
The Dow posted a key reversal down on Friday and closed below the 10-day moving average crossing at 10,514. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near.

Crude intraday 55.40, closes lower/Dow higher

2005-06-02T14:26:00.000-07:00

July crude oil closed down $1.10 at $53.50 a barrel today. Prices hit a fresh five-week high today and then backed off to close near the session low, in the wake of a bearish U.S. inventory report issued today. The bulls still have some upside technical momentum.
The U.S. stock indexes closed firmer again today amid ideas that U.S. interest rates won't rise much farther and on a drop in crude oil prices today. Bulls still have good near-term technical momentum. Traders are anxiously awaiting Friday morning's key U.S. jobs report for May.

Chart: xly

STOCK MARKET/ CRUDE OIL/SP500 COMMENT

2005-06-01T16:05:00.000-07:00

The U.S. stock indexes closed solidly higher today amid ideas that U.S. interest rates won't rise much farther, and despite the huge gains in crude oil prices. Crude closed at $54.60+2.63 it's biggest one day increase in 2 months! Stronger U.S. economic readings;combined with continued housing increases in sales as well as building increases, and the European Union turmoil at present make U.S. equities more attractive for investors. Bulls still have good near-term technical momentum.
The SP500 crossed 1200 today with an intraday high of 1205.64. A close above 1209 should signal a re-test of the March 7 highs of 1229.11.
ConocoPhillips; which splits June 2, had a very strong showing and helped pull the market as well as the oil indexes higher. COP; ConocoPhillips, has been on a "tear" since last wednesday.

Crude +.84/ PDC "rocketing on"

2005-05-29T15:21:00.000-07:00

July crude oil closed higher on Friday and above resistance marked the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.01. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. The high- range close set the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.

Pioneer Drilling; pdc, continued it's run up since mid-may closing friday at $14+.72. Pioneer has had a 27.25% run since mid month!

Stocks cheer economic growth with GDP release

2005-05-26T15:05:00.000-07:00

U.S. stocks ended higher Thursday, with the Nasdaq climbing to its best level in nearly three months, as an upward revision in first-quarter economic data strengthened investors' confidence.
The gains of today in all of the averages came in light volume; prior to the Memorial Day weekend holiday, in a market bolstered by solid news on the economic front, lower overall commodities prices and a rebounding dollar. The dollar touched a seven-month high against the euro and gold was down over $1 while oil could only squeek out a .03 gain on the July contract.
A stock we mentioned last evening; Pioneer Drilling (pdc), was up almost one dollar closing at $13.28+.92. Commerce Bank; (cbh), rebounded .20 to close at $27.93-.20.

Crude back over $50

2005-05-25T16:03:00.000-07:00

July crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday and is challenging resistance marked the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.12. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's rally, the previous reaction high crossing at 54.25 is the next upside target.

Pioneer Drilling chart: courtesy of charts.mr.swing.com
On it's way back to $15?

Our view on Commerce Bank has changed. Turning back down.

Home sales are "white hot"

2005-05-24T13:56:00.000-07:00

Sales of existing U.S. homes rose 4.5% in April to a record seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.18 million, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. Economists had expected sales to be about flat at 6.88 million, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. March sales were revised lower, to 6.87 million from 6.89 million. See Economic Calendar.The old record was 7.02 million in June 2004. Sales grew in three regions and were flat in the West. The median sales price rose 15.1% from April 2004, reaching $206,000 -- the fastest year-over-year price gain in 25 years.
The Commerce Department will report on new-home sales for April on Wednesday. Economists are looking for a decline to 1.33 million sales on an annualized basis from 1.42 million in March.
In April, sales of existing single-family homes rose 4.5% to a record seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.28 million from 6.01 million in March. Sales of condos rose 4.% to a record 899,000 from 858,000.

Chart on Commerce Bank/comments

2005-05-21T17:10:00.000-07:00

The charts shows it is swinging back up. We may post entry points/prices, targets and stops sunday. Looks like a potential good play.

2 services to aid those wishing to make money trading

2005-05-18T16:29:00.000-07:00

I have not been the greatest lately with any selections here at our site due to my "real world" obligations. Even though our record is very good since the inception just after Christmas '04. I wanted to pass on to those who have been here 2 people; whom I have traded with in the past, that are very reputable and above all good.

For swing traders I highly recommend Larry Swing and his varied swing strategies.

For day traders I highly recommend Steve Matrix @ day-traders.com/

7065 W Ann Rd, #130
Las Vegas NV 89130
(702) 655-3160

NASDAQ has a mind of it's own

2005-05-17T16:26:00.000-07:00

It seems like only yesterday that the media was touting the mighty Dow, while the poor Nasdaq struggled to hold its head above water. Just last week we began to see a burst of outperformance from the Nasdaq, perhaps signaling that the tech stocks were shedding their bearish winter coats and preparing to embark on a summer rally of their own.

Below is a comparison of the "Spyders" to the "Cubes" and the recent divergence not including this weeks rally.

Amylin Outlook Hurt By Slower Launch For Byetta

2005-05-16T16:37:00.000-07:00

Incorporating a more conservative launch of the diabetes drug Byetta; Prudential Equity Group maintained a "neutral weight" rating on Amylin Pharmaceuticals, the research firm lowered the target price to $21 from $23, and adjusted earnings estimates. "Following insights garnered through a discussion with a key opinion leader and a careful analysis of our projections, we expect a slower launch for Byetta than we had originally projected, primarily given the degree of education that we expect to be required to penetrate the market," Prudential said. The firm widened the 2006 estimate to a loss of 52 cents per share from a loss of 3 cents. Despite its "neutral" rating, Prudential said, "[We] maintain our favorable long-term view of the company based on the commercial prospects for Byetta."

AMYLIN PHARMA INC (NasdaqNM:AMLN) Delayed quote data Edit
After Hours (RT-ECN): 17.50 Down 0.04 (0.23%)
Last Trade: 17.54
Trade Time: 4:00PM ET
Change: Down 0.01 (0.06%)
Prev Close: 17.55
Open: 17.69

Day's Range: 17.47 - 17.85
52wk Range: 15.68 - 24.95
Volume: 1,337,068
Avg Vol (3m): 2,358,772
Market Cap: 1.83B
P/E (ttm): N/A
EPS (ttm): -1.70
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)

"Potential only"/Market "bottom" this week?

2005-05-15T13:41:00.000-07:00

The techs continued to show relative strength, but as noted Thursday, the way the market turned the last few sessions, showing relative strength is similar to winning an ugly contest. The S&P500 broke back below the necklines of their head and shoulders bases and the 200 day SMA. The Dow and S&P500 have not broken the April lows, but they are in the process of making a test of that level. That could actually be a positive if the test is successful, but this was an awfully short rebound to be setting any kind of significant bottom. There is a lot of resistance yet to clear as SP500 tests its lows. If that test is successful, then it bounces higher as well than perhaps ther is hope.

Hope has about as much place in the market as waiting for an answer from your crystal ball or tarot cards!

Stocks/commodities down overseas as well

2005-05-12T17:41:00.000-07:00

Asian stocks fell in U.S. trading as price declines in oil, gold and copper sent commodity shares lower. BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company and Australia's No. 1 oil producer, led the drop.

We have an associate highly connected with BHP and is another reason why we are so strong on mining companies.

The Bank of New York Co.'s Asia ADR Index, which tracks the region's American depositary receipts, lost 1.6 percent to 105.48.

Crude oil for June delivery fell 3.8 percent to $48.54 a barrel in New York after reports showed rising U.S. petroleum inventories and slower growth in Chinese demand. Copper and gold prices both fell to three-month lows.

BHP Billiton tumbled $1.04 to $24.38. WMC Resources Ltd., Australia's No. 4 mining company, slipped 30 cents to $24.26.

PetroChina Co., the country's largest oil producer, dropped $1.56 to $60.84. Santos Ltd., the No. 3 oil and gas company in Australia, declined $1.14 to $29.56.

Toyota Motor Corp. fell $1.53 to $71.85. The world's second- biggest carmaker faces concerns over quality standards as it shifts more production to developing countries to trim costs, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing industry executives. Nissan Motor Co. Chief Executive Carlos Ghosn said Toyota may be pursuing the wrong strategy by trying to produce the same vehicle in different markets, the Journal said.

Nikkei 225 Stock Average futures expiring in June closed at 11,015 in Chicago, below the close of 11,080 in Osaka and from 11,065 in Singapore.

4-20 to 5-10 Rally?

2005-05-11T16:28:00.000-07:00

SPX 4/20 IDL was 1136.15 and the 5/10 IDH was 1178.84 a gain of 42.69 points. Now that would have been a good long trade with a futures or options contract. So have we reached a "top" near term? I mentioned this in an email to a friend regarding some stocks for this week keying on the 5/11 date. Right now you may have to ask "Mr. Mad Money" himself for good longs. As for this site I am looking hard before making any calls since we have been so "lucky/good" so far this year at 6-0-1 since late December. Back than I felt we would make many more commodity recommendations than we have so far.

Our periscope is searching for a prime target.

Market Summary

2005-05-08T14:59:00.000-07:00

There is tension in the market that is distorting what is good news and what is bad news. Typically, prosperity is celebrated by Americans and the market. Problem is, this is one of those atypical times when the Fed is actively raising rates to take on inflation and fight prosperity. The market wants it to end as soon as possible because the Fed acts as a governor, an inhibitor on the economy and thus the market.

Indeed, it is often the catalyst of serious economic problems. In eight of the last ten rate hiking campaigns the economy subsequently tanked into recession. The Fed's most recent triumph was the 2000 crash, yet many still bow to the Federal Reserve building when they walk by with some Manson-like belief that Greenspan and company actually saved us from disaster. With trillions of dollars in lost retirement savings as a result, it is fairly incomprehensible that some believe the outcome was a good thing. If Greenspan wants another job after the Fed he could always work as a weatherman. Being right 20% of the time would make him a giant in that field.

Thus, a surge in non-farm payrolls and upward revisions to February and March by a net 100K had little impact in the end. Sure futures jumped on the news, but they, like the market later, backed off after the initial move, an indication of some of the undercurrents about just what this news meant. The market rallied early, but the initial surge in the first 15 minutes was the zenith. It was all downhill after that.

We are looking for trades on both the long and short side this weekend.

Market Comments

2005-05-05T16:34:00.000-07:00

The U.S. stock indexes closed lower today in quiet dealings, ahead of key U.S. economic data on Friday, in the form of the jobs report for April. Look for a more active trading session on Friday. The bulls are regaining a bit of near-term technical momentum in the stock indexes.

June crude oil closed up $0.70 at $50.83 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high. Serious chart damage has occurred recently. A bearish double-top reversal pattern is still in place on the daily bar chart.

June COMEX gold futures closed up $0.70 at $430.70 today in lackluster trading. Look for more active trading Friday, following the key U.S. jobs report for April. Gold has been on a 4 month downtrend from the early December highs with lower highs and lower lows on each trend line. Lower prices are expected on the next leg down.